With the 2025/26 Premier League title race heading for one of its closest finishes in years, Jamie Carragher has predicted that Manchester City will ultimately edge out Arsenal to claim the trophy—potentially on goal difference.
Speaking on Sky Sports following a dramatic weekend of action, the Liverpool legend suggested that while Arsenal currently lead the pack, City’s games in hand and historical clinical finishing give them the upper hand.
The State of the Race (as of May 4, 2026)
The Premier League table reflects a high-stakes standoff between the two heavyweights:
| Position | Team | Played | Goal Difference | Points |
| 1st | Arsenal | 35 | +41 | 76 |
| 2nd | Manchester City | 33 | +37 | 70 |
- The Advantage: Arsenal hold a 6-point lead, but Manchester City have two games in hand. If City win those two matches, they will be level on points with Arsenal heading into the final two weeks of the season.
- The Carragher View: Carragher noted on April 21 that “goal difference will decide the Premier League champion.” He believes City’s “momentum” and tendency to go on late-season winning streaks make them slight favorites, despite Arsenal’s impressive form led by Viktor Gyökeres and Bukayo Saka.
Remaining Fixtures & Final Push
- Arsenal’s Path: The Gunners have 3 games left and recently bolstered their goal difference with a commanding 3-0 win over Fulham on May 2.
- City’s Congestion: Pep Guardiola’s side faces a grueling schedule to make up their games in hand, but Carragher argues that City’s ability to win games “10-0” (metaphorically) allows them to erase Arsenal’s current +4 goal difference advantage quickly.
- The Goal Difference Factor: Historically, City have used late-season blowouts to secure their position. Carragher’s prediction hinges on the idea that the two teams will finish level on points, with City’s superior scoring rate in their final five games being the tiebreaker.
